James applied for a deal to return to the Cavaliers, which is a win-win situation. 👑There are grudges on the basketball level, which are both feasible and emotional levels.

(Original article published on June 30, authored by Sam Quinn of CBS Sports, the content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

When James returned to the Cavaliers in 2014, he placed a mission above all goals. “The goal is undoubtedly to win as many championships as possible,” he stated in the famous Sports Illustrated open letter proclaiming his return, “but the most important thing for me is to bring back a championship trophy for Northeast Ohio.” When James achieved this goal in 2016, it was widely believed that he had fulfilled his promise to his hometown and was free to leave Cleveland to pursue other unfinished dreams. Therefore, when James signed with the Lakers in 2018, public opinion unanimously determined that the "Calligraphy Chapter" of his career had completely ended.

But to this day, we should have long understood that James has always done his best. After all, in that open letter, when he listed his Cavaliers teammates who were looking forward to working with, he deliberately skipped the names of Wiggins and Bennett, and then the two were indeed traded to the Timberwolves for Love. James may have multiple qualities, but "inferior" is never among them. Now that media reports that he has doubts about the direction of the Lakers' development, another statement in the letter may be worth reexamining.

"I always believed I would go back to Cleveland and end my career there, just not sure about the specific time," James told Sports Illustrated at the time. "After the season, I didn't even consider the free agent market. But considering that I had two sons and my wife Savanna was pregnant with my daughter, I began to think about raising my children in my hometown. I've looked at other teams, but I won't leave the Heat for any team except the Cavaliers. The longer the time, the more the decision felt right, and it could bring me real happiness."

Apparently, 2014 was that "specific time", and James was probably determined to live his life in the Cavaliers. But please see the dual family and career situations he is facing now: his two sons have grown up, and Brownie is playing for the Lakers side by side with his father; Bryce is about to enter the University of Arizona to compete in the NCAA; his daughter Zhu Rui is still in school age, and James, whose legendary career is approaching his final chapter, will no longer move his family with him for a long time because he joins a new team. He always believed that he might retire with the Cavaliers, and now this moment is right in front of him. Even though he had planned to end his career with the Lakers, the team's current situation and his personal demands were becoming increasingly obvious.

The Lakers introduced 26-year-old superstar Luca Doncic before the end of this year's trading date. As long as assets are managed reasonably, they will have the ability to compete for the championship in the next 5-10 years. But James' time window is obviously not 5-10 years. Next season is likely to be his last NBA season. In the better part, it is just waiting and watching year by year. James has made a clear statement through his agent Ritchie Paul that he hopes the Lakers will adopt the same strategy.

"James is eager to compete for the championship," Ritchie Paul told ESPN. "He understands that the Lakers are planning for the future, but he values ​​the actual chances of winning the championship more." According to ESPN, James "will closely monitor the Lakers' offseason operations and observe whether the team is forming a lineup with the ability to compete for the championship." When the Lakers entered the free agent market, not only did they have no center in the lineup, but key wing player Finney Smith also chose to jump out of the contract and seek a long contract.

If the Lakers' operations in the next few days are deviated, their current window for championships may be completely closed. The Thunder have set an overly high benchmark, and it is obviously difficult to reach just by signing a veteran middle-class center and several basic free agents. This may be irrelevant to the Lakers management. Having Doncic gives them the capital to stay patient and can even see next season as a transition period for future layout. But if this is true, it will lose meaning to continue to stay James. His trading value may return to zero after the end of next season, and he may even retire directly!

Therefore, when the Lakers pursue the maximum probability of winning the championship for a long time, and James focuses on short-term championship opportunities, the most rational choice between the two sides is to break up friendly. The Lakers can still obtain considerable long-term assets through trading, and James, who holds the trade veto, can not only choose the next company independently, but also get the best short-term championship game configuration. Of course, if James reveals his intention to leave the team, teams such as the Knicks and the Warriors who are in the "winning in the present" mode will inevitably be mentioned. Both teams have had rumors with James in the past trading cycles.

But the most reasonable destination so far is the Knight. This is not only due to emotional factors or James's previous willingness to retire, but also based on the Cavaliers' current competitive state. The team has bet on the full sprint in 2026 and 2027, and the Eastern Conference has been rewritten when the Celtics and Pacers' core players recover from the Achilles tendon. Although James has easily ruled the weak East many times, he has never faced such a favorable situation.

Even without James, the Cavaliers are still the number one favorite to win the championship in the East. They won 64 wins this season, and if Garland hadn't been injured, they might have even entered the finals. By renewing Merrill and upgrading Ocorro to Lonzo Ball, the Cavaliers' total spending (including luxury tax) after filling the lineup will reach $400 million. They will not only break through the second rich line, but also completely ignore salary restrictions. League rules allow the team to cross the line twice within five years, and the third cross will trigger the most severe punishment (the first round pick will automatically drop to the 30th pick). If you are opening a two-year window for the championship, James is undoubtedly the ideal puzzle.

The core question is: Is this transaction feasible? Can the Cavaliers meet the requirements of the Lakers while meeting the requirements of the labor and capital agreement? The answer may be yes, but the operation will be extremely complicated. The Cavaliers' proud financial resources have become an obstacle at this moment, and the new labor-management agreement imposes strict restrictions on high-paying teams.

Although the Knights have accumulated huge wages, they have not violated any rules of the labor agreement.. Will the handover of scepters from the Bath family to Walter change this tradition? You should know that when he was in charge of the Dodgers, he was known for abandoning emotional factors and pursuing the best decisions. However, if Jenny Buss, who nominally retains the management of the team, will completely deviate from his style of conduct if he sends James to his team.

also contrary to James's character, it is forced to trade. Remember: Despite being labeled as a "power scheming", James never changed his career through a deal. The Lakers' legendary status is crucial to James. The relationship between the player who claims to be the best in history and the most iconic NBA club can add points to the GOAT battle. Any behavior that highlights his "frequent job-hopping" may backfire. Only by playing for the Cavaliers at this stage can you not anger Jordan's loyal fans, which raises the most critical question: Is the Cavaliers management willing to make a deal?

From a basketball perspective, there is no standard answer. There has never been a precedent in NBA history that a 20-year-old player is used to trade a 40-year-old veteran, even if the deal targets are legendary stars like James. Although the Cavaliers cannot maintain their existing lineup forever, in the era of rich people, it is crucial to retain young assets and lineup depth. Even if they trade Garland or Allen in the future, they will get a huge return; and any investment in James will be gone after he retires for one or two years, and the only hope is that he can bring a championship trophy before leaving the team.

If Garland can stay healthy in the playoffs, the Cavaliers may not have won the championship without James; in the weak East, whether the Cavaliers traded or not, they are a favorite in the finals. However, Garland and Allen's reputation in the playoffs are not perfect. The playoff trends in recent years are not friendly to such players: a short point guard has a natural disadvantage in the defense, and a center who lacks shooting cannot dominate the rebound or the penalty area, which will drag down the offense (Allen lost both games in the playoffs).

Even at this age, James is still the most reliable pillar of the playoffs. In the series against the Timberwolves, he averaged 25 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists per game, almost maintaining the Lakers' defensive system alone. The core constructed by him, Mitchell and Mobley Jr. is a perfect playoff configuration. Three stars with the ability to create opportunities are supplemented by role players who both defense and projection: new player Lonzo Ball, renewed Merrill, Struce/Allen/Hunt, who stays at least one of them. Dean Wade is still a high-quality puzzle when he is healthy. If you can sign a free agent or train new players such as Craig Porter and Jaylen Tyson, this superstar-driven lineup will be extremely competitive as long as James can maintain his form this season. Perhaps this is not absolutely guaranteed, but to this day, I am afraid that the "Old Man of Time" will also have to admit James' durability.

Finance, this transaction can even become a secret way for the Knights to save money. As mentioned earlier, the Cavaliers must drop below the second tyrant line to complete the transaction in compliance, which means huge savings at the luxury tax level. James' existing contract expires after next season. If he is willing to accept a salary cut by then, the Cavaliers can prepare for the future before tax issues break out. While asset reserves will shrink, having Mitchell and Mobley Jr. still forms a solid foundation, General Manager Altman can be rebuilt with no need to worry about draft pick freezes or financial pressure from the boss.

But this is by no means a simple basketball decision, but more about the personal emotions of the decision makers. In 2022, Garland said that "it would be cool to build a team legend that has nothing to do with James." Although the final decision is not in his hands, it is hard to believe that boss Gilbert has no similar ideas with management. Although Gilbert paid a sky-high luxury tax to welcome James' return in 2014, the first thing people remember is his infamous "comic font open letter" in 2010. If he can win a championship that has nothing to do with James, it may be more in line with the wishes of his boss Gilbert, and the same is true for Altman, the general manager who will rebuild from scratch after 2018.

In 2014, James was willing to forgive the Cavaliers' past offenses. Today, 11 years later, he does not need to apologize, but the initiative is no longer in his hands. If the Cavaliers are unwilling to break up the existing lineup for him, everything will be free of negotiations. Although James holds the veto power of trading and controls the overall situation, trading still requires consent. If James still desires to retire as a Cavalier player as in 2014, there is a theoretical operational path, and the only uncertainty is whether the Cavaliers are willing to pay the necessary price to fulfill this dream.

Original text: Sam Quinn

Compiled by: Li Taibai